Austin Housing Market Hits New Inventory High as Buyer Activity Lags Behind – June 13, 2025 Analysis

The Austin-area real estate market continues its prolonged transition into a buyer's market, marked by record-high inventory, sluggish absorption, and continued downward pressure on prices. As of June 13, 2025, active residential listings have surged to 17,631—breaking the previous all-time high set just days earlier on June 9. The implications of this sustained growth in supply, coupled with lackluster buyer engagement, are significant, especially when viewed through the lens of long-term market cycles and investor psychology.

Inventory Reaches New Heights While Activity Index Falls

The headline data point for today’s update is clear: the active listing count now sits at 17,631. This figure is 2,128 listings higher than the 2024 peak of 15,503 reached in mid-July last year. The growth in inventory is not just seasonal—it is systemic. The year-over-year increase from June 2024 to June 2025 is 17.5%, and the year-to-date growth from January to June is an even steeper 34.9%.

This surge in supply has not been matched by demand. The Activity Index—a proprietary absorption metric that compares pending listings to total inventory—is just 20.9%. That’s a 13.8% drop compared to the same time last year (24.2%). Historically, anything below 30% is considered a buyer’s market, and Austin now sits far beneath that threshold. At this level, sellers are competing for a shrinking buyer pool, which often translates to extended time on market, deeper price reductions, and increasing seller concessions.

Over Half of Listings Are Cutting Price

Price sensitivity is becoming more acute. A remarkable 54.4% of all active listings in the Austin MLS have undergone a price reduction. In the City of Austin alone, the figure is even higher at 55.5%. Several outlying cities are seeing even steeper adjustment pressure—Lago Vista reports 65.6% of listings with a price drop, Liberty Hill 60.3%, and Hutto 60.4%. This widespread markdown activity reflects growing seller urgency and mounting competition among listings.

Pending Sales Decline as New Listings Rise

From January through June 2025, the market has registered 27,054 new listings—a figure that is 20.6% above the 25-year historical average. However, pending sales over the same period have totaled just 20,496, which is 6.0% below the historical average and down a steep 15.4% year over year. This creates a supply-demand imbalance of 6,558 units—the largest spread since 2004, when the difference peaked at 7,383.

This imbalance is also reflected in the New Listing to Pending Ratio, a forward-looking gauge of market friction. The ratio for May 2025 stands at just 0.53, down from 0.58 in April and well below the 25-year average of 0.81. The year-to-date average is now 0.66, the lowest it has been since 2010. In practical terms, this means that for every two new listings, barely more than one is going under contract—highlighting growing hesitancy among buyers despite increased choices and improved pricing.

Months of Inventory Continues to Expand

Another core metric confirming the shift in market dynamics is Months of Inventory, now sitting at 6.24 across the region. That’s up from 5.26 this time last year, an 18.8% increase. According to the local classification standards, Austin is now firmly in a neutral-to-buyer’s market. City-specific breakdowns reveal a similar trend: Austin proper has climbed to 5.88 months, up 34.9% year over year. Markets like Marble Falls (11.0), Dale (11.0), and Spicewood (11.0) are now deeply saturated.

The trend is particularly noteworthy in suburban markets that had been strong during the pandemic-era housing boom. Leander, for example, has jumped from 3.32 months of inventory in January to 6.14 by June—a staggering 85% increase in half a year. Similarly, Liberty Hill (5.81), Kyle (4.31), and Round Rock (4.18) are all seeing mounting inventory with limited absorption.

Sales Volume and Sales Density Show Further Declines

Sales velocity also shows signs of stress. The number of sold properties for June stands at 2,780, and cumulative year-to-date sales total 14,893. While this is 7.8% above the long-term average, it represents a -6.8% decline compared to the same timeframe in 2024.

However, when normalized for population growth and Realtor density—two critical benchmarks for contextualizing raw sales volume—the figures tell a more sobering story. Year-to-date, Austin has recorded 585 home sales per 100,000 residents, which is 20.3% below average. Even more striking, there have been only 801 home sales per 1,000 Realtors, a metric that is 24.5% below average and down 2.8% from 2024. This signals that while Austin has more agents than ever, buyer activity is insufficient to sustain healthy competition or agent productivity.

Price Corrections Continue, Especially for Entry-Level Segments

Price metrics confirm the market reset is still underway. The average sold price in June 2025 is $607,210, down 10.96% from the peak of $681,939 in May 2022—a drop of nearly $75,000. The median sold price currently stands at $470,000, a decline of 14.55% from the same 2022 peak of $550,000. When viewed on a trailing 36-month basis, today’s median sold price is 12.15% lower than June 2022.

Interestingly, the most pronounced price depreciation is occurring in the lower quartile of the market. Properties in the bottom 25th percentile have seen prices drop by 3.8% year over year, and their price per square foot has fallen by 4.0%. By contrast, homes in the top 25th percentile have experienced only a 0.3% price decline, with a 3.2% reduction in price per square foot. This suggests that affordability-challenged buyers are pulling back more than affluent ones, deepening the divide between luxury and entry-level segments.

Long-Term Outlook: When Will Prices Recover?

Using Austin’s historical 25-year compound annual appreciation rate of 5.163%, the market would need roughly 40 months—or until September 2028—for the median sold price to return to its prior peak of $550,000. This assumes that the current median price of $470,000 represents the bottom of the correction. If prices slide further, that recovery timeline would naturally extend.

This type of projection reinforces the importance of distinguishing between short-term volatility and long-term fundamentals. For buyers with a multi-year time horizon, today’s market conditions represent rare opportunities to purchase below replacement cost or pre-pandemic inflation-adjusted values. For sellers, however, expectations must be reset in alignment with a slower absorption cycle and increased competition.

Market Health and Buyer Favorability Indices Confirm Conditions

Two proprietary indicators confirm the tilt toward buyers. The Market Health Index (MHI) sits at just 20.0%—well below the 30% threshold that typically denotes buyer control. Meanwhile, the Inventory Stress Index (ISI) is currently at 7.0%, which is considered low and also signals a buyer-friendly environment. These indicators suggest that despite rising listings and declining prices, buyers are still hesitant—likely due to economic uncertainty, high mortgage rates, or broader affordability constraints.

Final Thoughts

The Austin housing market is in a prolonged adjustment phase, characterized by a persistent oversupply of listings, weakening buyer urgency, and a slow but steady decline in prices. Inventory is at a historic high, and over half of homes are seeing price drops. Absorption metrics such as the Activity Index and New Listing to Pending Ratio remain well below historical norms. While population growth and long-term demand fundamentals still favor Austin, the near-term picture clearly favors buyers.

For those entering the market—whether buyers, investors, or even long-term planners—this is an ideal moment to evaluate properties with reduced competition and potentially favorable seller concessions. Sellers and their agents, on the other hand, must price aggressively, prioritize condition and presentation, and prepare for longer marketing times.

In short, the Austin market of mid-2025 is offering clarity: this is a buyer’s market, both statistically and psychologically. Until buyer demand accelerates meaningfully, prices and expectations will continue to be reset. Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 13, 2025, with today's data.