Austin Housing Market Daily Analysis – As of June 12, 2025, the Austin-area housing market continues to display a complex mix of elevated inventory, slower absorption, and lingering pricing pressures. Drawing from Team Price Real Estate's comprehensive market data, the following analysis explores the implications of the latest figures on buyer sentiment, inventory trends, market velocity, and price stabilization—providing a clear-eyed outlook for real estate professionals, investors, and homeowners navigating today's shifting landscape.

Inventory Surge Nears All-Time High : Active residential listings across the Austin-Area MLS now stand at 17,481, just 60 units shy of the all-time high of 17,541 recorded earlier this week. This represents a dramatic build-up from July 2024’s high of 15,503 and marks a pivotal moment in market saturation. Compared to the same period in 2024, inventory is up significantly, illustrating the persistent influx of new listings despite a cooling pace of buyer activity.

This record-setting inventory increase is not only quantitative but also qualitative: 54.2% of current active listings have experienced price reductions. In key submarkets like Liberty Hill and Lago Vista, that figure climbs above 60%, suggesting motivated sellers are adjusting to lower demand and pricing power in many segments.

Absorption Continues to Decline : The Activity Index—a key measure of market absorption calculated by pending listings divided by active plus pending listings—has dropped to 21.1%. This is a 14.3% year-over-year decline from June 2024’s 24.6%, underscoring the slower pace at which buyers are committing to purchases despite a wealth of options.

Similarly, the Monthly New Listing to Pending Ratio stands at 0.55, well below the 25-year average of 0.81. This figure reflects how many new listings are going under contract relative to how many are hitting the market. In other words, for every 100 new listings, only 55 are converting to pending sales—a clear indicator of excess supply and weakened demand.

Months of Inventory Signals Prolonged Buyer’s Market : Perhaps the most telling metric is Months of Inventory, now at 6.19—up 19.9% from 5.17 this time last year. This figure suggests that if no new listings were added, it would take over six months to absorb the current supply at the current pace of sales. According to Team Price Real Estate's classification, anything above 7.0 months enters firm buyer’s market territory; at 6.19 months, the region teeters just below that threshold, suggesting a balanced-to-buyer-favorable environment.

In many submarkets, that threshold has already been crossed. Marble Falls and Spicewood are both sitting at 11.0 months of inventory, while Lago Vista stands at 9.61 months. Even the City of Austin, often more insulated due to consistent demand, shows 5.85 months of inventory—up 17% year over year.

Listing and Sales Activity: A Disconnect Widens : Cumulative new listings from January through June 2025 have reached 26,769—marking a 19.4% increase above the 25-year average. However, this growth is slightly deceptive: year-over-year, new listings are actually down 2.9%, signaling some seasonal softening despite historical outperformance.

The imbalance becomes more concerning when juxtaposed with pending sales. Cumulative pending contracts for the same period total 20,357, which is 6.6% below the long-term average and 15.9% lower than the same period in 2024. This yawning gap—a difference of 6,412 between new and pending listings—represents the largest differential since 2004, when the gap peaked at 7,383. This metric alone highlights the mounting inventory pressure and the sluggish absorption trend characterizing the current cycle.

Pricing: Still in Correction, but Finding a Floor? : As of June 2025, the average sold price in the Austin region sits at $612,382—a decline of 10.2% or roughly $70,000 from the market peak in May 2022. The median sold price currently stands at $470,000, down 14.55% or $80,000 over the same period.

The Market Projection Model from Team Price Real Estate uses a 25-year compound appreciation rate of 5.163% to forecast future pricing. According to this model, if $470,000 represents the trough, it would take approximately 40 months—until September 2028—for prices to return to their May 2022 peak of $549,795.

Notably, the median price trend versus the same month three years prior is currently down 12.15%, further reinforcing that we are still in the midst of a cyclical correction. However, the moderation in year-over-year declines for both the top and bottom quartiles suggests that while the bottom may not yet be firmly in place, the steepest part of the drop may be behind us. Specifically, the bottom 25th percentile saw a -3.4% price drop year over year, compared to a -1.6% drop for the top 25th percentile.

Sales Density: Higher Volume, But Fewer Per Capita : Year-to-date, Austin has recorded 14,829 sold properties—7.3% above the 25-year average, indicating that transaction volume remains historically healthy on an absolute basis. However, when adjusted for population and Realtor base, the picture becomes less favorable.

Sales per 100,000 population stand at 582, which is 20.7% below the long-term average, and sales per 1,000 Realtors are at 798, down 24.8% from the norm. These metrics highlight the saturation of the agent pool and signal heightened competition among professionals in a slower-paced market. For clients, this suggests the importance of selecting an agent equipped with deep market expertise and robust analytics to navigate the current conditions.

Submarket Spotlight: Cities with Most and Least Stress : While the metro-wide Months of Inventory suggests a mostly balanced market, a breakdown by city reveals a more nuanced map: Buyer’s Markets: Spicewood, Dale, Marble Falls, and Lago Vista all show inventory above 9.5 months, well into buyer’s market territory. These areas may see continued price pressure and longer time on market. Stable Markets: Cities like Austin (5.85 months), Round Rock (4.24), and Leander (6.19) remain within or just above neutral territory, reflecting relatively resilient demand. Softening Markets: Areas that have experienced sharp year-over-year increases in Months of Inventory include Manchaca (+127.5%), Marble Falls (+69.2%), and Leander (+62.6%). These steep climbs suggest caution for sellers and a growing window of opportunity for buyers.

Market Health Index & Inventory Stress Index : Team Price’s proprietary indicators further validate the market’s current leaning: Market Health Index (MHI) sits at 20.0%. This index measures overall demand strength and market velocity; a value under 30% typically indicates a buyer’s market. Inventory Stress Index (ISI) is currently at 7.0%, well below the 10% buyer-friendly threshold. This index evaluates listing pressure and excess inventory, reinforcing that today’s buyers are negotiating from a position of strength.

Conclusion: A Market Under Pressure, With Long-Term Opportunities : In summary, Austin’s residential real estate market as of June 12, 2025, continues its transition from a heated seller’s market to a more balanced—if not buyer-leaning—environment. Inventory levels are pressing against historical highs, and absorption metrics like the Activity Index and New-to-Pending Ratios show continued softening. Pricing, while still adjusting downward from 2022 peaks, appears to be approaching a potential floor, especially if volume stabilizes and inflationary pressures ease in the second half of the year.

For buyers, the current market presents an opportunity to negotiate pricing and terms with leverage. For sellers, strategic pricing and market differentiation are now critical. And for investors and analysts, these dynamics suggest a continued correction in the short term, but the fundamentals—particularly Austin's long-term appreciation rate and population growth—support a resilient recovery over the next three to four years.

As always, the key is staying informed. Team Price Real Estate will continue to publish daily and weekly updates, helping you navigate the market with clarity and confidence. Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 12, 2025, with today's data.